 The NationThe RegionOregon briefsIdaho briefsWashington briefsNorthern 30 BriefsNevada briefsPurchasing Managers' SurveyGraphs in this Issue |
THE NATION
The fourth quarter is opening to a mix that is uncomfortable. Leading indicators continue to fall. This year there have been seven declines, two increases and one unchanged. The National Association of Purchasing Managers' Index has been below fifty since July and in the last release 49 percent of the respondents indicated that inventories were ôtoo high.ö Initial unemployment claims have been edging higher. Reports on the Christmas retail season are mixed as shoppers and merchants play the game of markdown chicken. The budget process is building towards another peakùwith the Administration having put forth both a plan and a veto of the Congressional proposal. Note that the notion of the CPI overstating inflation has made it into the PresidentÆs proposal. Employment estimates showed a gain in November of 166,000 with an unemployment rate of 5.6 percent. The October gain was revised down to 66,000, the private work week fell and average private hourly earnings declined. Third quarter performance was boosted by the rebound in inventory accumulation, a snapback in housing, and an increase in government spending. These events are not likely to be repeated during the fourth quarter and a growth rate closer to 2 percent is likely. The ôsoft landingö is not yet over. Assuming that there is a budget deal by the 19th of December, it is likely that the Fed will move the funds rate down.THE REGION
Nearing the end of the year, Oregon and Nevada remain the strongest states in our territory. Later this month Utah will join that group when the West One merger is consummated. Idaho has moved down to a slower rate of growth. Washington figures are distorted by the current aerospace strike, but the state has weathered the major aerospace contraction, and is poised for more rapid growth. Northern California is showing signs of stronger performance with a hint of a real estate bottom.OREGON BRIEFS
Oregon personal income taxpayers received checks totaling $163 million dollars in late November or early December as the state mailed out personal income tax revenues that came in over the forecasted revenues for the 1993-95 biennium. This ô2% Kicker Lawö was enacted in the late 1970s to prevent extra revenues being retained by the government and later becoming a part of the spending base. Corporate taxpayers will get their credit in 1996 when they file 1995 returns. (Things are different here.)Oregon wage and salary employment growth in October was 4 percent or 56,200. The gain is overstated in that there were 9,200 workers in labor disputes during October of 1994 and only 1,100 in October of 1995. Last year the major labor dispute involved grocery employees and this year it is the Boeing dispute. The unemployment rate remained at 4.7 percent in October - unchanged from September.
Between 1991-92 and 1995-96 total assessed property valuations in Oregon rose 52 percent! The valuation went from $112.1 billion in 1991-92 to $170.9 billion in 1995-96. The county with the largest percentage gain was Tillamook at 82 percent, while Lake had the smallest at 21 percent.
IDAHO BRIEFS
In October, Idaho wage and salary employment was 487,500, which was 2.7 percent ahead of the same period last year. There were year over year declines in forest products, state government, non-durable manufacturing and some utilities. There were rapid gains in electronic equipment and services. Construction employment was 1.3 percent ahead of last year. The unemployment rate was 4.2 percent.October potato prices in Idaho averaged $5.45 per hundredweight, up from $4.60 in October, 1994. Wheat prices averaged $4.84 per bushel in October 1995, up from $3.88 during the same month last year. The misfortunes of grain producers elsewhere in the world have resulted in higher grain prices in the region.
At the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory in eastern Idaho, employment has fallen from 12,800 during the winter of 1992 to 8,700 in the fall of 1995.
WASHINGTON BRIEFS
The last Update had the phrase ômay be overö in the mention of the Boeing strike. The proposed contract was voted down and the strike went on, at a cost in lost wages of about $18 million per week. A new contract was approved in a mid-December vote. The company has announced that it will deliver between 205 and 210 airplanes this year, down from a projected 235.Washington wage and salary employment in October was 16,900 above the October, 1994 level, for a gain of .7 percent. However, there were 22,600 strikers who were not counted as being employed. The stateÆs unemployment rate increased to 5.9 percent, reflecting seasonal declines in construction, tourism and food processing.
The Washington Department of Licensing reports that for the 12 months ending in October, 1995 a total of 123,400 out-of-state drivers applied for Washington licenses. This is a 2.8 percent decrease from the figure for the 12 months ending in October of 1994. In October, 1995, 10,285 out-of-state drivers got licenses, this is down from 14,025 in October, 1994.
NORTHERN 30 BRIEFS
October wage and salary employment in the ônorthern 30ö increased by 17,490 or 1.2 percent over the year. In Sacramento, employment growth was at 1.4 percent, while the rest of the region increased by 1.1 percent. Northern California was once again above the statewide average of 1.1 percent. The major gains were in services, trade, manufacturing, construction and local and state government. There were declines in federal employment, forest products and utilities.The winter of 1995 is off to a much drier start than last year. The Northern California-Sierra Nevada region saw 85 inches of water fall in 1994. This was 71 percent above normal. For 1995, long range forecasters are expecting reduced rainfall due in part to La Nina, which is cooler than normal water off South America.
In Sacramento, the California Association of Realtors reported that September 1995 median home prices were up 2.5 percent over the year and down 1.2 percent from August. Sales in September 1995 were down 16.2 percent from September 1994 and 10.4 percent from August 1995. Statewide third quarter resales rebounded from the second quarter pace and median home prices increased, suggesting that stability may be near.
NEVADA BRIEFS
October wage and salary employment in Nevada increased by 5.8 percent or 44,000 over the year. Seventy-two percent of the increase took place in construction, trade, hotels, gaming and recreation, and government. Las Vegas employment rose 5.3 percent and Reno employment increased by 6.7 percent.The Southern Nevada Water Authority and the Los Angeles Metropolitan Water District proposed a partnership to seek water resources to line a canal. They would share the costs and the water saved and share unused Colorado River water. Arizona has protested and the U.S. Department of Interior is reviewing the agreement.
The September Nevada gaming win was $650.5 million, which was 5.2 percent ahead of September, 1994. The Clark County win was up 3.9 percent while the Washoe County win increased by 11.7 percent. The Fremont Street Experience in downtown Las Vegas opens this month in an attempt to boost the areaÆs fortunes.
Purchasing Managers' Survey
The Purchasing ManagersÆ Survey components are diffusion indicies which show the percentage of the respondents reporting rising plus half of the percentage of respondents reporting unchanged. Note the declining fraction reporting rising prices and the falling fraction reporting slower deliveries. The composite index includes production, employment, vendor performance, inventories and new orders. A composite index above fifty suggests expansion.Key Components of the National Association of Purchasing ManagersÆ Index
| Nov. | Oct. | Sept. | Aug. | July | June | May | |
| Purchasing Managers' Index | 46.5 | 46.8 | 48.3 | 46.9 | 50.5 | 45.7 | 46.1 |
| New Orders | 50.1 | 48.1 | 50.2 | 46.0 | 53.3 | 43.4 | 43.2 |
| New Export Orders | 56.3 | 51.8 | 52.9 | 54.7 | 57.9 | 56.7 | 55.8 |
| Imports | 45.0 | 50.6 | 49.4 | 52.1 | 54.2 | 48.9 | 46.5 |
| Production | 45.8 | 48.2 | 50.6 | 49.3 | 50.9 | 44.8 | 48.5 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 45.8 | 48.3 | 49.8 | 49.1 | 50.4 | 51.2 | 52.9 |
| Inventories | 43.2 | 40.7 | 40.8 | 45.2 | 46.7 | 43.9 | 42.7 |
| Prices | 44.5 | 46.7 | 47.6 | 48.0 | 58.3 | 65.6 | 71.2 |
| Employment | 44.1 | 45.2 | 45.3 | 44.2 | 47.7 | 46.9 | 43.9 |
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Economic IndicatorsConsumer Price Index
Overview
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